Using a Machine Learning System to Identify and Prevent Medication Prescribing Errors: A Clinical and Cost Analysis Evaluation

Background: Clinical decision support (CDS) alerting tools can identify and reduce medication errors. However, they are typically rule-based and can identify only the errors previously programmed into their alerting logic. Machine learning holds promise for improving medication error detection and reducing costs associated with adverse events. This study evaluates the ability of a machine learning system (MedAware) to generate clinically valid alerts and estimates the cost savings associated with potentially prevented adverse events. Methods: Alerts were generated retrospectively by the MedAware system on outpatient data from two academic medical centers between 2009 and 2013. MedAware alerts were compared to alerts in an existing CDS system. A random sample of 300 alerts was selected for medical record review. Frequency and severity of potential outcomes of alerted medication errors of medium and high clinical value were estimated, along with associated health care costs of these potentially prevented adverse events. Results: A total of 10,668 alerts were generated. Overall, 68.2% of MedAware alerts would not have been generated by the existing CDS system. Ninety-two percent of a random sample of the chart-reviewed alerts were accurate based on structured data available in the record, and 79.7% were clinically valid. Estimated cost of adverse events potentially prevented in an outpatient setting was more than $60 per drug alert and $1.3 million when extrapolating study findings to the full patient population. Conclusion: A machine learning system identified clinically valid medication error alerts that might otherwise be missed with existing CDS systems. Estimates show potential for cost savings associated with potentially prevented adverse events.