Comparison of nomograms with other methods for predicting outcomes in prostate cancer: A critical analysis of the literature

被引:261
作者
Shariat, Shahrokh F. [1 ]
Karakiewicz, Pierre I. [2 ]
Suardi, Nazareno [2 ]
Kattan, Michael W. [3 ]
机构
[1] Univ Texas SW Med Ctr Dallas, Dept Urol, Dallas, TX 75390 USA
[2] Univ Montreal, Canc Prognost & Hlth Outcomes Unit, Montreal, PQ, Canada
[3] Cleveland Clin, Dept Quantitat Hlth Sci, Cleveland, OH 44106 USA
关键词
D O I
10.1158/1078-0432.CCR-07-4713
中图分类号
R73 [肿瘤学];
学科分类号
100214 ;
摘要
Purpose: Accurate estimates of risk are essential for physicians if they are to recommend a specific management to patients with prostate cancer, Accurate risk estimates are also required for clinical trial design, to ensure homogeneous patient groups. Because there is more than one model available for prediction of most outcomes, model comparisons are necessary for selection of the best model. We describe the criteria based on which to judge predictive tools, describe the limitations of current predictive tools, and compare the different predictive methodologies that have been used in the prostate cancer literature. Experimental Design: Using MEDLINE, a literature search was done on prostate cancer decision aids from January 1966 to July 2007. Results: The decision aids consist of nomograms, risk groupings, artificial neural networks, probability tables, and classification and regression tree analyses. The following considerations need to be applied when the qualities of predictive models are assessed: predictive accuracy (internal or ideally external validation), calibration (i.e., performance according to risk level or in specific patient subgroups), generalizability (reproducibility and transportability), and level of complexity relative to established models, to assess whether the new model offers advantages relative to available alternatives. Studies comparing decision aids have shown that nomograms outperform the other methodologies. Conclusions: Nomograms provide superior individualized disease-related risk estimations that facilitate management-related decisions. Of currently available prediction tools, the nomograms have the highest accuracy and the best discriminating characteristics for predicting outcomes in prostate cancer patients.
引用
收藏
页码:4400 / 4407
页数:8
相关论文
共 77 条
[1]   Competing risk analysis of men aged 55 to 74 years at diagnosis managed conservatively for clinically localized prostate cancer [J].
Albertsen, PC ;
Hanley, JA ;
Gleason, DF ;
Barry, MJ .
JAMA-JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN MEDICAL ASSOCIATION, 1998, 280 (11) :975-980
[2]  
[Anonymous], 1993, Monographs on statistics and applied probability
[3]   The TIMI risk score for unstable angina/non-ST elevation MI - A method for prognostication and therapeutic decision making [J].
Antman, EM ;
Cohen, M ;
Bernink, PJLM ;
McCabe, CH ;
Horacek, T ;
Papuchis, G ;
Mautner, B ;
Corbalan, R ;
Radley, D ;
Braunwald, E .
JAMA-JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN MEDICAL ASSOCIATION, 2000, 284 (07) :835-842
[4]   Differences in the rate of lymph node invasion in men with clinically localized prostate cancer might be related to the continent of origin [J].
Briganti, Alberto ;
Shariat, Shahrokh F. ;
Chun, Felix K. -H. ;
Hutterer, Georg C. ;
Roehrborn, Claus G. ;
Gallina, Andrea ;
Rigatti, Patrizio ;
Valiquette, Luc ;
Montorsi, Francesco ;
Karakiewicz, Pierre I. .
BJU INTERNATIONAL, 2007, 100 (03) :528-532
[5]   Validation of a nomogram predicting the probability of lymph node invasion based on the extent of pelvic lymphadenectomy in patients with clinically localized prostate cancer [J].
Briganti, Alberto ;
Chun, Felix K. -H. ;
Salonia, Andrea ;
Gallina, Andrea ;
Farina, Elena ;
Da Pozzo, Luigi F. ;
Rigatti, Patrizio ;
Montorsi, Francesco ;
Karakiewicz, Pierre I. .
BJU INTERNATIONAL, 2006, 98 (04) :788-793
[6]   A preoperative nomogram identifying decreased risk of positive pelvic lymph nodes in patients with prostate cancer [J].
Cagiannos, I ;
Karakiewicz, P ;
Eastham, JA ;
Ohori, M ;
Rabbani, F ;
Gerigk, C ;
Reuter, V ;
Graefen, M ;
Hammerer, PG ;
Erbersdobler, A ;
Huland, H ;
Kupelian, P ;
Klein, E ;
Quinn, DI ;
Henshall, SM ;
Grygiel, JJ ;
Sutherland, RL ;
Stricker, PD ;
Morash, CG ;
Scardino, PT ;
Kattan, MW .
JOURNAL OF UROLOGY, 2003, 170 (05) :1798-1803
[7]   Development and external validation of an extended 10-core biopsy nomogram [J].
Chun, Felix K. -H. ;
Briganti, Alberto ;
Graefen, Markus ;
Montorsi, Francesco ;
Porter, Christopher ;
Scattoni, Vincenzo ;
Gallina, Andrea ;
Walz, Jochen ;
Haese, Alexander ;
Steuber, Thomas ;
Erbersdobler, Andreas ;
Schlomm, Thorsten ;
Ahyai, Sascha A. ;
Currlin, Eike ;
Valiquette, Luc ;
Heinzer, Hans ;
Rigatti, Patrizio ;
Huland, Hartwig ;
Karakiewicz, Pierre I. .
EUROPEAN UROLOGY, 2007, 52 (02) :436-445
[8]   Initial biopsy outcome prediction - Head-to-head comparison of a logistic regression-based nomogram versus artificial neural network [J].
Chun, Felix K. -H. ;
Graefen, Markus ;
Briganti, Alberto ;
Gallina, Andrea ;
Hopp, Julia ;
Kattan, Michael W. ;
Huland, Hartwig ;
Karakiewicz, Pierre I. .
EUROPEAN UROLOGY, 2007, 51 (05) :1236-1243
[9]   A critical appraisal of logistic regression-based nomograms, artificial neural networks, classification and regression-tree models, look-up tables and risk-group stratification models for prostate cancer [J].
Chun, Felix K. -H. ;
Karakiewicz, Pierre I. ;
Briganti, Alberto ;
Walz, Jochen ;
Kattan, Michael W. ;
Huland, Hartwig ;
Graefen, Markus .
BJU INTERNATIONAL, 2007, 99 (04) :794-800
[10]   Development and internal validation of a nomogram predicting the probability of prostate cancer Gleason sum upgrading between biopsy and radical prostatectomy pathology [J].
Chun, FKH ;
Steuber, T ;
Erbersdobler, A ;
Currlin, E ;
Walz, J ;
Schlomm, T ;
Haese, A ;
Heinzer, H ;
McCormack, M ;
Huland, H ;
Graefen, M ;
Karakiewicz, PI .
EUROPEAN UROLOGY, 2006, 49 (05) :820-826