Resting heart rate and risk of type 2 diabetes: A prospective cohort study and meta-analysis

Background Positive association between resting heart rate (RHR) and risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D) has been documented in several studies. However, whether RHR is an independent predictor of T2D and its potential interaction with other risk factors of T2D remain unclear. Methods We conducted a prospective cohort study of 31 156 men from the Health Professionals Follow-up Study (1992-2012). Cox proportional hazard model was used to examine the association between RHR and T2D risk. We further examined whether this association is modified by known risk factors. Lastly, we conducted a meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies. Results During 505 380 person-years of follow-up, we identified 2338 incident T2D cases. The multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) comparing the highest vs lowest categories of RHR was 1.69 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.43-2.01). Increase in 10 bpm of RHR was associated with 19% increased risk of T2D in the fully adjusted model (HR, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.14-1.24). The HRs of T2D associated with RHR were stronger among those with normal weight or without hypertension (P interaction < 0.001). Moreover, RHR with other known risk factors cumulatively increased T2D risk. A meta-analysis consistently showed a positive association between RHR and T2D risk (the summary relative risk [RR] for highest vs lowest RHR, 1.53; 95% CI, 1.26-1.86, n = 12, the summary RR per 10 bpm increase, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.09-1.26, n = 13). Conclusions High RHR was independently associated with increased risk of T2D. Our findings suggest that RHR, with other known risk factors, could be a useful tool to predict T2D risk.