Development of an integrated cost model for nuclear plant decommissioning

A need for an integrated cost estimating tool for nuclear decommissioning and associated waste processing and storage facilities for Intermediate Level Waste (ILW) was defined during the authors recent MSc studies. In order to close the defined gap a prototype tool was developed using logically derived CER's and cost driver variables. The challenge in developing this was to be able to produce a model that could produce realistic cost estimates from the limited levels of historic cost data that was available for analysis. The model is an excel based tool supported by 3 point risk estimating output and is suitable for producing estimates for strategic or optioneering cost estimates (+/- 30%) early in the conceptual stage of a decommissioning project. The model was validated using minimal numbers of case studies supported by expert opinion discussion. The model provides an enhanced approach for integrated decommissioning estimates which will be produced concurrently with strategic options analysis on a nuclear site.