Time to Development of Overt Diabetes and Macrovascular and Microvascular Complications Among Patients With Prediabetes: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Objective In this study, we aimed to determine the effect of age, gender, race, and obesity on the development of overt diabetes and macro/microvascular events among patients with prediabetes. Methods This was a retrospective cohort study of patient records available through a national electronic health record (EHR) database from 2012 to 2017. Patients with prediabetes in the baseline year of 2012 were identified. Macro/microvascular events were defined as the diagnosis of myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, or chronic kidney disease (CKD). The effects of age, gender, race, and obesity on the incidence of diabetes and macro/microvascular events between 2013-2017 were assessed using the multivariate Cox proportional-hazards model. Results Among the total 5,230 patients with prediabetes in 2012, 16.7% developed overt diabetes, and 19.7% developed a macro/microvascular event. Elderly patients (HR: 2.96, 95% CI: 2.12-4.13), males (HR: 1.38, 95% CI: 1.20-1.59), and African-Americans (HR: 1.47, 95% CI: 1.26-1.73) were at a higher risk of experiencing a macro/microvascular event. Additionally, male gender (HR: 1.27, 95% CI: 1.11-1.46) and obesity (HR: 1.24, 95% CI: 1.08-1.43) were significant factors associated with the development of overt diabetes. Furthermore, when diabetes status was added as an interaction term to the Cox proportional-hazards model, no statistical difference was found with respect to any of the other independent variables. It can therefore be inferred that those with prediabetes and overt diabetes had a similar risk of developing macro/microvascular events. Conclusions Based on our findings, factors including advanced age, obesity, male gender, and African race significantly impact the progression to diabetes and associated macro/microvascular events.