Natural gas corridors between the EU and its main suppliers: Simulation results with the dynamic GASTALE model

被引:61
作者
Lise, Wietze [1 ,2 ]
Hobbs, Benjamin F. [3 ]
van Oostvoorn, Frits [2 ]
机构
[1] IBS Res & Consultancy, TR-34433 Istanbul, Turkey
[2] Energy Res Ctr Netherlands, Energy Markets & Int Environm Policy Grp, ECN Policy Studies, Amsterdam, Netherlands
[3] Johns Hopkins Univ, Dept Geog & Environm Engn, Baltimore, MD 21218 USA
关键词
natural gas markets; dynamic market models; investment analysis;
D O I
10.1016/j.enpol.2008.01.042
中图分类号
F [经济];
学科分类号
02 ;
摘要
Growth in gas demand poses a challenge for European energy consumers and other gas-importing countries in terms of an increasing dependency on gas imports and consequently also supply security. This paper focuses on interactions among demand, supply, and investments in natural gas corridors, namely pipeline transport, LNG, and storage facilities, affecting the European natural gas market over the period 2005-2030. A number of policy scenarios, including a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, are formulated to study the impact of demand uncertainty and delays in investment on the gas transport infrastructure required in the long run in Europe. The analyses indicate that substantial investments in gas transport corridors are needed to accommodate imports and seasonal demand variations. Analysis of scenarios of supply interruption, in the form of suddenly reduced import capacity for particular pipeline routes, indicates that portions of Europe could experience price increases of up to 100% in the case of a year-long interruption. To accommodate import needs and to mitigate possible disruptions, pipeline connections running from East to West need to be given special priority. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码:1890 / 1906
页数:17
相关论文
共 24 条
[1]  
*ALG EN, 2005, GAS MORG ADV EN NEDE
[2]  
[Anonymous], 144 CPB
[3]  
[Anonymous], HOLD UP MULTILATERAL
[4]  
Boots MG, 2004, ENERGY J, V25, P73
[5]  
BOTHE D, 2005, 0501 EWI
[6]   Energy supply security and geopolitics:: A European perspective [J].
Correljé, A ;
van der Linde, C .
ENERGY POLICY, 2006, 34 (05) :532-543
[7]   Examining market power in the European natural gas market [J].
Egging, Rudolf G. ;
Gabriel, Steven A. .
ENERGY POLICY, 2006, 34 (17) :2762-2778
[8]  
EMF, 2007, 23 EMF
[9]  
*EU, 2004, EUR EN TRANSP SCEN K
[10]  
Gabriel S.A., 2003, NETW SPAT ECON, V3, P97, DOI DOI 10.1023/A:1023955701522