Logistic Wavelets and Their Application to Model the Spread of COVID-19 Pandemic

被引：4

作者：

Rzadkowski, Grzegorz ^{[1
]}

Figlia, Giuseppe ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Warsaw Univ Technol, Dept Finance & Risk Management, Narbutta 85, PL-02524 Warsaw, Poland

[2] P&P SPA Italy, C Vercelli 168, I-10155 Turin, Italy

来源：

APPLIED SCIENCES-BASEL | 2021年 / 11卷 / 17期

关键词：

logistic wavelet; logistic equation; logistic function; COVID-19; infection; Eulerian number; Riccati's differential equation; CWT scalograms;

D O I：

10.3390/app11178147

中图分类号：

O6 [化学];

学科分类号：

0703 ;

摘要：

In the present paper, we model the cumulative number of persons, reported to be infected with COVID-19 virus, by a sum of several logistic functions (the so-called multilogistic function). We introduce logistic wavelets and describe their properties in terms of Eulerian numbers. Moreover, we implement the logistic wavelets into Matlab's Wavelet Toolbox and then we use the continuous wavelet transform (CWT) to estimate the parameters of the approximating multilogistic function. Using the examples of several countries, we show that this method is effective as a method of fitting a curve to existing data. However, it also has a predictive value, and, in particular, allows for an early assessment of the size of the emerging new wave of the epidemic, thus it can be used as an early warning method.

引用

页数：16

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