The influence of political and economic changes on macro-level property crime variation: The case of post-communist Central and Eastern Europe

The goal of this article was to assess the extent to which major changes in the political and economic systems of Central and Eastern European countries after the fall of communism contributed to variations in property crime rates, controlling for other structural predictors. Data for 17 countries from 1990-2003 were collected for three types of property crimes: total theft; motor vehicle theft; and domestic burglary. Traditional predictors derived from modernization and routine activities theories produced inconsistent results, but political and economic changes due to the post-communist transformations were significant predictors of property crime variation. Economic changes toward liberalization, marketization, and privatization were strongly, positively related to higher property crime rates across all three types. Political changes toward democratization were only positively related to higher domestic burglary rates. The control variables were weak and inconsistent predictors of all three property crimes. The article discusses some of the implications of these findings for updating macro-level crime theories.