Climate change and thresholds of biome shifts in Amazonia

被引：42

作者：

Fernando Salazar, Luis ^{[1
,2
]}

Nobre, Carlos A. ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Ind Santander, Escuela Ingn Civil, Bucaramanga, Colombia

[2] Natl Inst Space Res, Ctr Earth Syst Sci, BR-12630000 Cachoeira Paulista, SP, Brazil

来源：

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS | 2010年 / 37卷

关键词：

ELEVATED CO2; CARBON-CYCLE; DEFORESTATION; DIEBACK;

D O I：

10.1029/2010GL043538

中图分类号：

P [天文学、地球科学];

学科分类号：

07 ;

摘要：

We examine potential critical thresholds for biome shift in the Amazonian tropical forest by forcing a potential vegetation model with prescribed climate anomalies and projections from global and regional climate models and different levels of CO2 fertilization effect under the SRES A2 scenario (2070-2099). The results indicate that tropical forests might be replaced by seasonal forests or savanna over eastern Amazonia with temperature increases of 2-3 degrees C (4-5 degrees C), when CO2 fertilization effect is not considered (partially considered), depending on precipitation anomaly. A precipitation decrease greater than 30% would trigger the shift from tropical forest to drier biomes, such as savanna and shrubland in southeastern Amazonia. The projected decrease in precipitation during the dry season and the increase of temperature are the main mechanisms driving calculated biome changes. However, biome changes are considerably smaller when the optimum fertilization effect is included. Citation: Salazar, L. F., and C. A. Nobre (2010), Climate change and thresholds of biome shifts in Amazonia, Geo-phys. Res. Lett., 37, L17706, doi:10.1029/2010GL043538.

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