Heart Rhythm Complexity Predicts Long-Term Cardiovascular Outcomes in Peritoneal Dialysis Patients: A Prospective Cohort Study

Background Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with end-stage renal disease. Heart rhythm complexity analysis has been shown to be useful in predicting outcomes in various diseases; however, data on patients with end-stage renal disease are limited. In this study, we analyzed the association between heart rhythm complexity and long-term cardiovascular outcomes in patients with end-stage renal disease receiving peritoneal dialysis. Methods and Results We prospectively enrolled 133 patients receiving peritoneal dialysis and analyzed linear heart rate variability and heart rhythm complexity variables including detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) and multiscale entropy. The primary outcome was cardiovascular mortality, and the secondary outcome was the occurrence of major adverse cardiovascular events. After a median of 6.37 years of follow-up, 21 patients (22%) died from cardiovascular causes. These patients had a significantly lower low-frequency band of heart rate variability, low/high-frequency band ratio, total power band of heart rate variability, heart rate turbulence slope, deceleration capacity, short-term DFA (DFA alpha 1); and multiscale entropy slopes 1 to 5, scale 5, area 1 to 5, and area 6 to 20 compared with the patients who did not die from cardiovascular causes. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that DFA alpha 1 had the greatest discriminatory power for cardiovascular mortality (area under the curve: 0.763) and major adverse cardiovascular events (area under the curve: 0.730). The best cutoff value for DFA alpha 1 was 0.98 to predict both cardiovascular mortality and major adverse cardiovascular events. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that DFA alpha 1 (hazard ratio: 0.076; 95% CI, 0.016-0.366; P=0.001) and area 1 to 5 (hazard ratio: 0.645; 95% CI, 0.447-0.930; P=0.019) were significantly associated with cardiovascular mortality. Conclusions Heart rhythm complexity appears to be a promising noninvasive tool to predict long-term cardiovascular outcomes in patients receiving peritoneal dialysis.