News and uncertainty about COVID-19: Survey evidence and short-run economic impact

被引：43

作者：

Dietrich, Alexander M. ^{[1
]}

Kuester, Keith ^{[2
,3
]}

Mueller, Gernot J. ^{[4
,5
]}

Schoenle, Raphael ^{[6
,7
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Tubingen, Nauklerstr 50, D-72074 Tubingen, Germany

[2] Univ Bonn, Adenauerallee 24-42, D-53113 Bonn, Germany

[3] CEPR, Adenauerallee 24-42, D-53113 Bonn, Germany

[4] Univ Tubingen, CEPR, Nauklerstr 50, D-72074 Tubingen, Germany

[5] CESifo, Nauklerstr 50, D-72074 Tubingen, Germany

[6] Brandeis Univ, CEPR, 415 South St, Waltham, MA 02454 USA

[7] CESifo, 415 South St, Waltham, MA 02454 USA

来源：

JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS | 2022年 / 129卷

关键词：

Consumer expectations; Survey; Large shock; Uncertainty; Monetary policy; EXPECTATIONS; SHOCKS;

D O I：

10.1016/j.jmoneco.2022.02.004

中图分类号：

F8 [财政、金融];

学科分类号：

0202 ;

摘要：

A tailor-made survey documents consumers' perceptions of the US economy's response to a large shock: the advent of the COVID-19 pandemic. The survey ran at a daily frequency between March 2020 and July 2021. Consumer's perceptions regarding output and inflation react rapidly. Uncertainty is pervasive. A business-cycle model calibrated to the consumers' views provides an interpretation. The rise in household uncertainty accounts for two-thirds of the fall in output. Different perceptions about monetary policy can explain why consumers and professional forecasters agree on the recessionary impact, but have sharply divergent views about inflation. (c) 2022 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：S35 / S51

页数：17

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