Cost-Effectiveness of Public Health Measures to Control COVID-19 in China: A Microsimulation Modeling Study

被引:7
作者
Wang, Qiang [1 ,2 ]
Shi, Naiyang [1 ,2 ]
Huang, Jinxin [1 ,2 ]
Yang, Liuqing [1 ,2 ]
Cui, Tingting [1 ,2 ]
Ai, Jing [3 ]
Ji, Hong [3 ]
Xu, Ke [3 ]
Ahmad, Tauseef [1 ]
Bao, Changjun [3 ]
Jin, Hui [1 ,2 ]
机构
[1] Southeast Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Epidemiol & Hlth Stat, Nanjing, Peoples R China
[2] Southeast Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Key Lab Environm Med Engn, Minist Educ, Nanjing, Peoples R China
[3] Jiangsu Prov Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Nanjing, Peoples R China
关键词
COVID-19; cost-effectiveness; agent-based model; public health measures; China; ACUTE RESPIRATORY SYNDROME; INFLUENZA TRANSMISSION; QUARANTINE;
D O I
10.3389/fpubh.2021.726690
中图分类号
R1 [预防医学、卫生学];
学科分类号
1004 ; 120402 ;
摘要
This study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of various public health measures in dealing with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China. A stochastic agent-based model was used to simulate the progress of the COVID-19 outbreak in scenario I (imported one case) and scenario II (imported four cases) with a series of public health measures. The main outcomes included the avoided infections and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Sensitivity analyses were performed to assess uncertainty. The results indicated that isolation-and-quarantine averted the COVID-19 outbreak at the lowest ICERs. The joint strategy of personal protection and isolation-and-quarantine averted one more case than only isolation-and-quarantine with additional costs. The effectiveness of isolation-and-quarantine decreased with lowering quarantine probability and increasing delay time. The strategy that included community containment would be cost-effective when the number of imported cases was >65, or the delay time of the quarantine was more than 5 days, or the quarantine probability was below 25%, based on current assumptions. In conclusion, isolation-and-quarantine was the most cost-effective intervention. However, personal protection combined with isolation-and-quarantine was the optimal strategy for averting more cases. The community containment could be more cost-effective as the efficiency of isolation-and-quarantine drops and the imported cases increases.
引用
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页数:9
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