Great Cascadia earthquakes and tsunamis of the past 6700 years, Coquille River estuary, southern coastal Oregon

Cascadia subduction zone earthquakes dropped tidal marshes and low-lying forests to tidal flat elevations 12 times in the last 6700 cal yr B.P. at the Coquille River estuary in southwestern Oregon. The youngest buried soil, preserved in tidal marsh deposits near the estuary mouth, records the A.D. 1700 earthquake that ruptured the entire Cascadia margin. Eleven other buried marsh and upland soils found in tributary valleys of the estuary provide repeated evidence for rapid, lasting relative sea-level rise interpreted as coseismic subsidence. Additional stratigraphic criteria supporting a coseismic origin for soil burial include: lateral soil correlation over hundreds of meters, fossil diatom assemblages that indicate a maximum of 1.2-3.0 m of submergence, and sand deposits overlying buried soils consistent with earthquake-induced tsunamis that traveled 10 km up the estuary. Twelve earthquakes occurred in the last 6500-6720 cal yr B.P., recurring on average every 570-590 yr. Intervals between earthquakes varied from a few hundred years to over 1000. Comparisons of the Coquille record to earthquake histories from adjacent sites in Oregon, southwestern Washington, and northwestern California suggest that at least two earthquakes in the last 4000 yr did not rupture the entire length of the subduction zone. An earthquake 760-1140 cal yr B.P. in southwestern Washington may have ruptured as far south as Coos Bay but probably stopped before it reached the Coquille estuary because no buried soil records the event, and tidal marsh conditions were set to record an earthquake. An earthquake limited to a southern segment of the Cascadia margin 1940-2130 cal yr B.P. probably did not rupture north of the Coquille estuary. An analysis of relative sea-level histories from either side of the Coquille fault failed to find conclusive evidence for late Holocene vertical deformation. However, we cannot preclude recent upper-plate faulting. If the fault is active, as geomorphic features suggest, then constraints on the highest possible elevation of mean tide level allow a maximum vertical slip rate of 0.20.4 mm/yr in the past 6200-6310 cal yr B.P.