Environmental variability can select for optimism or pessimism

被引:31
作者
McNamara, John M. [1 ]
Trimmer, Pete C. [2 ]
Eriksson, Anders [3 ,4 ]
Marshall, James A. R. [2 ]
Houston, Alasdair I. [5 ]
机构
[1] Univ Bristol, Sch Math, Bristol BS8 1TW, Avon, England
[2] Univ Bristol, Dept Comp Sci, Bristol BS8 1UB, Avon, England
[3] Univ Gothenburg, Dept Marine Ecol, Gothenburg 40530, Sweden
[4] Univ Cambridge, Dept Zool, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, England
[5] Univ Bristol, Sch Biol Sci, Bristol BS8 1UG, Avon, England
关键词
Metapopulation; natural selection; optimism; rationality; spatial variation; stochasticity; temporal variation; NATURAL-SELECTION; RISK; EXPLOITATION; POPULATIONS; INFORMATION; DEMOGRAPHY; EVOLUTION; BEHAVIOR; ANIMALS; RULES;
D O I
10.1111/j.1461-0248.2010.01556.x
中图分类号
Q14 [生态学(生物生态学)];
学科分类号
071012 ; 0713 ;
摘要
P>We propose operational definitions of reproductive optimism and pessimism; optimism involves behaving in a way that gives too much weight (in terms of producing surviving offspring) to positive events, pessimism gives too much weight to negative events. Natural selection maximizes the long-term growth of a lineage rather than short-term measures such as numbers of offspring. Consequently, optimism or pessimism can be favoured by natural selection, even though such biases appear irrational from a short-term perspective. We investigate the evolution of optimism in a metapopulation. The circumstances of a patch change over time, independently of other patches. With sufficient dispersal between patches, stochasticity affects members of a lineage largely independently and optimism is favoured. With little dispersal, the temporal fluctuations of a patch affect many members similarly; pessimism is then favoured. Our results establish that the spatial and temporal structure of the environment is crucial in determining the direction of evolved biases.
引用
收藏
页码:58 / 62
页数:5
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