Model-based analysis of effects from large-scale wind power production

For an economically and ecologically optimised integration of fluctuating renewable power generation (especially wind power) into electricity generation, a detailed consideration of fluctuation-induced effects on the existing power system is essential. A model-based approach is introduced in this paper, which comprehensively analyses the impact of such effects on power plant scheduling and facilitates their integration into the development of strategies for an optimised evolution of the future power system structure. The newly developed AEOLIUS tool for the simulation of power plant scheduling is described. In a combined analysis of long- and short-term effects it is used together with the multi-periodic cost-optimising energy system model PERSEUS-CERT. Based on the MATLAB/Simulink (R) package, AEOLIUS considers the challenges for plant scheduling down to a time scale of 10 minutes. Special attention is paid to the provision of stand-by capacities and control power, as well as intermediate storage. Thus, a sophisticated quantification of the actual (net) benefits of wind power feed-in is achieved. Model results for Germany show that wind mainly substitutes power from intermediate-load and base-load plants (coal-, lignite-, and nuclear-fired). However, the required provision of stand-by capacities and control power does not only limit the substitution of conventional capacities, but also the achievable net savings of fuel and emissions in conventional power generation.