What is the magnitude of the subpopulation effect?

被引:32
作者
Curran, JM [1 ]
Buckleton, JS
Triggs, CM
机构
[1] Univ Waikato, Dept Stat, Hamilton, New Zealand
[2] ESR, Auckland, New Zealand
[3] Univ Auckland, Dept Stat, Auckland, New Zealand
关键词
DNA interpretation; product rule; subpopulation effects;
D O I
10.1016/S0379-0738(03)00171-3
中图分类号
DF [法律]; D9 [法律]; R [医药、卫生];
学科分类号
0301 ; 10 ;
摘要
The effect of population subdivision on estimated match probabilities has been raised [Nature 339 (1989) 501; Am. J. Hum. Genet. 48 (1991) 819; Science 254 (1991) 1921]. Previous work [J. Forensic Sci. 39 (1994) 319; J. Forensic Sci. 39 (1994) 988; Am. J. Hum. Genet. 55 (1994) 533] has compared product rule estimates from differing databases and found that the "subpopulation" error may be of the order of a factor of 10. This approach compares an estimate with an estimate. This paper uses simulation to extend these studies by allowing a comparison to a 'true match probability' and supports the conclusion that subpopulation effects are mild. In addition the performance of recommendations 4.1 and 4.2 of NRC II [National Research Council and C.O.D.F. Science, The Evaluation of Forensic DNA Evidence, National Academy Press, Washington, DC, 1996]. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码:1 / 8
页数:8
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