With the expansion and enhancement of cloud data centers in recent years, increasing the energy consumption and the costs of the users have become the major concerns in the cloud research area. Service quality parameters should be guaranteed to meet the demands of the users of the cloud, to support cloud service providers, and to reduce the energy consumption of the data centers. Therefore, the data center's resources must be managed efficiently to improve energy utilization. Using the virtual machine (VM) consolidation technique is an important approach to enhance energy utilization in cloud computing. Since users generally do not use all the power of a VM, the VM consolidation technique on the physical server improves the energy consumption and resource efficiency of the physical server, and thus improves the quality of service (QoS). In this article, a server threshold prediction method is proposed that focuses on the server overload and server underload detection to improve server utilization and to reduce the number of VM migrations, which consequently improves the VM's QoS. Since the VM integration problem is very complex, the exponential smoothing technique is utilized for predicting server utilization. The results of the experiments show that the proposed method goes beyond existing methods in terms of power efficiency and the number of VM migrations.