Reliability assessment of cracked pipes subjected to creep-fatigue loading

The reliability analysis of defective pipes, which operate under creep-fatigue loading conditions has been studied. An austenitic stainless steel pipe containing an axially external semi-elliptical surface crack, subjected to variable internal pressure at elevated temperature has been considered as the benchmark problem. Different parameters in material behavior, geometry parameters, and operational condition have been assumed as random variables in the probabilistic assessments. The reliability of the cracked pipes have been evaluated at various operation times, using different reliability methods. Sensitivity analyses have been conducted to investigate the importance measure of the random variables involved in the problem. Moreover, the effects of reducing the scattering of the random variables on the variations of the reliability index, beta has been examined.