Comparing the Potential Causal Influence of Two Indicators of Early Alcohol Use on Later Alcohol Use Disorder Symptoms

Age of first drink (AFD) has repeatedly been found to be associated with alcohol use disorder (AUD); however, some studies suggest this is a noncausal effect that may be due to childhood risk factors or familial influences. In contrast to indicators of any early alcohol use, such as AFD, indicators of a pattern of repeated drinking may be more likely to be causally associated with later problematic alcohol use. The current study examined AFD and age of onset of regular drinking (ARD; defined as drinking at least once a month for 6 or more months) as quasicausal predictors of lifetime AUD symptoms. Participants were 3,005 adult Australian twins who reported having been regular drinkers in their lifetime. Semistructured interviews were conducted to assess AFD, ARD, AUD, externalizing symptomatology, and other substance use. Personality traits were assessed via questionnaire. Unadjusted and adjusted multilevel discordant twin models were conducted using data from 1,041 complete twin pairs; adjusted models included socioeconomic status, personality, conduct disorder, and early initiation of regular smoking and marijuana use as covariates. Results from fully adjusted models controlling for familial confounds provided evidence for a causal influence of ARD on AUD symptoms, whereby twins with an earlier age of regular drinking than their cotwin had more lifetime AUD symptoms. However, AFD did not significantly predict AUD symptoms after adjusting for confounds. These results suggest that early regular drinking may serve as a causal risk factor for future problems, while early initiation of any alcohol use may indicate genetic liability.