Standards for distribution models in biodiversity assessments

被引：745

作者：

Araujo, Miguel B. ^{[1
,2
,3
]}

Anderson, Robert P. ^{[4
,5
,6
]}

Marcia Barbosa, A. ^{[3
]}

Beale, Colin M. ^{[7
]}

Dormann, Carsten F. ^{[8
]}

Early, Regan ^{[9
]}

Garcia, Raquel A. ^{[2
,3
,10
,11
]}

Guisan, Antoine ^{[12
,13
]}

Maiorano, Luigi ^{[14
,15
]}

Naimi, Babak ^{[2
]}

O'Hara, Robert B. ^{[16
,17
,18
]}

Zimmermann, Niklaus E. ^{[19
,20
]}

Rahbek, Carsten ^{[2
,21
]}

机构：

[1] Spanish Natl Res Council, CSIC, Natl Museum Nat Sci, Madrid 28006, Spain

[2] Univ Copenhagen, Ctr Macroecol Evolut & Climate, Nat Hist Museum Denmark, DK-2100 Copenhagen, Denmark

[3] Univ Evora, Rui Nabeiro Biodivers Chair, P-7000 Evora, Portugal

[4] CUNY City Coll, Dept Biol, 138Th St & Convent Ave, New York, NY 10031 USA

[5] CUNY, Grad Ctr, Program Biol, New York, NY 10016 USA

[6] Amer Museum Nat Hist, Div Vertebrate Zool, New York, NY 10024 USA

[7] Univ York, Dept Biol, York YO19 5PR, N Yorkshire, England

[8] Univ Freiburg, Biometry & Environm Syst Anal, D-79106 Freiburg, Germany

[9] Univ Exeter, Ctr Ecol & Conservat, Penryn TR10 9FE, Cornwall, England

[10] Stellenbosch Univ, Dept Bot & Zool, Ctr Invas Biol, ZA-7602 Matieland, South Africa

[11] Univ Cape Town, Ctr Stat Ecol Environm & Conservat SEEC, ZA-7701 Cape Town, South Africa

[12] Univ Lausanne, Dept Ecol & Evolut, Lausanne, Switzerland

[13] Univ Lausanne, Inst Earth Surface Dynam, Lausanne, Switzerland

[14] Univ Roma La Sapienza, Dept Biol & Biotechnol Charles Darwin, Rome, Italy

[15] Stn Zool Anton Dohrn, Dept Integrat Marine Ecol, Naples, Italy

[16] Senckenberg Biodivers & Climate Res Ctr, Senckenberganlage 25, D-60325 Frankfurt, Germany

[17] NTNU, Dept Math Sci, N-7491 Trondheim, Norway

[18] NTNU, Ctr Biodivers Dynam, N-7491 Trondheim, Norway

[19] Swiss Fed Res Inst WSL, Landscape Dynam, Birmensdorf, Switzerland

[20] Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Environm Syst Sci, Zurich, Switzerland

[21] Imperial Coll London, Dept Life Sci, Silwood Pk, Ascot SL5 7PY, Berks, England

来源：

SCIENCE ADVANCES | 2019年 / 5卷 / 01期

基金：

新加坡国家研究基金会; 瑞士国家科学基金会; 美国国家科学基金会;

关键词：

SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELS; IUCN RED LIST; CLIMATE-CHANGE; CONSERVATION PRIORITIES; GLOBAL BIODIVERSITY; ECOSYSTEM SERVICES; EXTINCTION RISK; SAMPLING BIAS; NICHE SHIFT; PREDICTIONS;

D O I：

10.1126/sciadv.aat4858

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

Demand for models in biodiversity assessments is rising, but which models are adequate for the task? We propose a set of best-practice standards and detailed guidelines enabling scoring of studies based on species distribution models for use in biodiversity assessments. We reviewed and scored 400 modeling studies over the past 20 years using the proposed standards and guidelines. We detected low model adequacy overall, but with a marked tendency of improvement over time in model building and, to a lesser degree, in biological data and model evaluation. We argue that implementation of agreed-upon standards for models in biodiversity assessments would promote transparency and repeatability, eventually leading to higher quality of the models and the inferences used in assessments. We encourage broad community participation toward the expansion and ongoing development of the proposed standards and guidelines.

引用

页数：10

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