PORK MARKET CRISIS IN ROMANIA: PIG LIVESTOCK, PORK PRODUCTION, CONSUMPTION, IMPORT, EXPORT, TRADE BALANCE AND PRICE

The paper analyzed Romania's pork market crisis by means of pig livestock, pork production, consumption, import, export, trade balance, pork price based on the empirical data provided by NIS Tempo Online for the period 20142018 emphasizing the effects of the African Swine Fever (ASF). Dynamic analysis, trend analysis, descriptive statistics, regression modeling, and comparison have been the main methodological tools used in this study. Despite that pig number declined by 27.7%, in 2018 accounting for3.92 million heads compared to 2010, and in 2019 there were lost other 486, 000 heads due to the ASF, pork production remained relatively stable at 426,100 Tons in 2018, being by only 3.3% higher than in 2014. Its level is justified by the increased live weight at slaughter and by the imports of pigs and pork carcasses. Pork consumption is 38.3kg/capita, by 15% higher than in 2010, but a little lower than 41 kg/capita, theEU-28 average. Romania's pork trade is dominated by imports, which led to a negative trade balance in 2018 of -327,010 Tons, being by 87.3 % higher than in 2014. In 2018, import represented 85% of pork production, 48.3 % of pork consumption, import dependency being 48%, and self sufficiency rate 56.5%. Export/import ratio registered 9% in terms of quantity and 5.7% in terms of value, the both figures reflecting the lowest level recorded by Romania, reflecting its status of net importing country and the inefficient trade. The ASF impact is seen in the growth of farm inputs price, production cost, and farm gate price, which since April 2019 increased from Lei 5.61 to Lei 8 per kg live weight in the month of December, that is by 42.6%, and the massive imports of pigs and carcasses practiced by the processors affecting the local breeders. To recover the pork market in Romania, both the breeders and processors have to respect the strategy and measures imposed by the authorities regarding pig growing, transportation, slaughtering, to sustain the development of pork production, its quality, and export and to increase efficiency and competitiveness of pork sector.