Changes in Nordic surface ozone episodes due to European emission reductions in the 1990s

Based on analyses of model calculations with a regional scale CTM for two different years and measurement data from background locations in northern Europe, we have found several indications that peak ozone value, in the Nordic countries have been reduced during the 1990s as a result of reduced emissions of precursors in Europe. Official European emission data for 1999 gave a better model performance than the emission data for 1990 when modelling 1999 and 2000. A bootstrap resampling technique indicated that the improvement in performance was significant. The model predicted a reduction in peak ozone values of the order of 30 mug m(-3) due to European emission reductions during the 1990s in the Nordic countries. It is thus likely that the number of exceedances of hourly threshold values has been reduced, although the small number of episodes does not allow strict statements. The number and magnitude of the ozone episodes as well as the model performance was clearly higher for southern Sweden and Norway compared to Finland, presumably reflecting differences in meteorological transport and emission source regions. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.