Risk-Based Assessment of Financial Losses Due to Voltage Sag

被引：49

作者：

Chan, Jhan Yhee ^{[1
]}

Milanovic, Jovica V. ^{[1
]}

Delahunty, Alice ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Manchester, Sch Elect & Elect Engn, Manchester M13 9PL, Lancs, England

[2] EON UK, Nottingham NG11 0EE, England

来源：

IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER DELIVERY | 2011年 / 26卷 / 02期

关键词：

Financial losses; net present value (NPV); probability; risk analysis; stochastic; voltage sag; PROBABILISTIC ASSESSMENT; INTERRUPTIONS;

D O I：

10.1109/TPWRD.2009.2037426

中图分类号：

TM [电工技术]; TN [电子技术、通信技术];

学科分类号：

0808 ; 0809 ;

摘要：

This paper investigates the factors that influence the outcome of financial-loss analysis in voltage sag studies. Focusing on industrial processes, this paper considers the effects of voltage sag profile estimation, plant-load profile modelling, and process cycle modelling on the financial risk associated with process failure. Based on voltage sag monitoring records, sag profile is probabilistically modeled for the estimation of future sag characteristic. Variations in financial risk due to varying process activities in different stages of a process (process cycle) and load profile are also investigated. The effects of the individual factors are analyzed through Monte Carlo simulation. The stochastic net present value method is introduced as a financial analysis tool.

引用

页码：492 / 500

页数：9

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