Impacts of human papillomavirus vaccination for different populations: A modeling study

被引:16
作者
Baussano, Iacopo [1 ]
Lazzarato, Fulvio [1 ,2 ]
Ronco, Guglielmo [3 ]
Franceschi, Silvia [4 ]
机构
[1] Int Agcy Res Canc, 150 Cours Albert Thomas, F-69372 Lyon 08, France
[2] Hosp Turin, AOU Citta Salute & Sci, Unit Canc Epidemiol, Turin, Italy
[3] Ctr Epidemiol & Prevent Oncol, Dept Canc Screening, Turin, Italy
[4] IRCCS, Aviano Natl Canc Inst, Canc Epidemiol Unit, Aviano, Italy
基金
加拿大健康研究院; 比尔及梅琳达.盖茨基金会;
关键词
herd effect; HPV vaccination; HPV prevalence; coverage threshold; COSTA-RICA VACCINE; INFECTION; RISK; IMMUNITY; AGE; CLEARANCE; HIV/AIDS; EFFICACY; BEHAVIOR;
D O I
10.1002/ijc.31409
中图分类号
R73 [肿瘤学];
学科分类号
100214 ;
摘要
International variations in the prevalence of HPV infection derive from differences in sexual behaviors, which are also a key factor of the basic reproductive number (R-0) of HPV infection in different populations. R-0 affects the strength of herd protection and hence the impact of a vaccination program. Similar vaccination programs may therefore generate different levels of impact depending upon the population's pre-vaccination HPV prevalence. We used IARC's transmission model to estimate (i) the overall effectiveness of vaccination versus no vaccination in women aged 15-34 years measured as percent prevalence reduction (%PR) of HPV16 and (ii) the corresponding herd protection in populations with gender-equal or traditional sexual behavior and with different levels of sexual activity, corresponding to pre-vaccination HPV16 prevalence from 1 to 8% as observed worldwide. Between populations with different levels of gender-equal sexual activity, the highest difference in %PR under girls-only vaccination is observed at 40% coverage (91%PR vs. 48%PR for 1% and 8% pre-vaccination prevalence, respectively). HPV16 elimination is obtained with 55 and 97% coverage, respectively. To achieve desirable levels of HPV16 prevalence after vaccination, different levels of coverage are required in populations with different levels of pre-vaccination HPV16 prevalence, for example, in populations with gender-equal sexual behavior a decrease to 1/1000 HPV16 from pre-vaccination prevalence of 1 and 8% would require coverages of 37 and 96%, respectively. In traditional populations, corresponding coverages would need to be 28 and 93%, respectively. In conclusion, pre-vaccination HPV prevalence strongly influences herd immunity and helps predict the overall effectiveness of HPV vaccination. What's new? Differences in sexual activity from one population to another account for up to a ten-fold difference in HPV prevalence, which in turn affects cervical-cancer risk. How do these factors impact the effectiveness of HPV-vaccination programs? In this epidemiological study, the authors found that, in countries where sexual behavior is based on traditional norms and HPV prevalence remains low, an early introduction of HPV vaccination will anticipate any increase of HPV prevalence among young women due to the liberalization of social attitudes.
引用
收藏
页码:1086 / 1092
页数:7
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