Impacts of human papillomavirus vaccination for different populations: A modeling study
被引:16
作者:
Baussano, Iacopo
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Int Agcy Res Canc, 150 Cours Albert Thomas, F-69372 Lyon 08, FranceInt Agcy Res Canc, 150 Cours Albert Thomas, F-69372 Lyon 08, France
Baussano, Iacopo
[1
]
Lazzarato, Fulvio
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机构:
Int Agcy Res Canc, 150 Cours Albert Thomas, F-69372 Lyon 08, France
Hosp Turin, AOU Citta Salute & Sci, Unit Canc Epidemiol, Turin, ItalyInt Agcy Res Canc, 150 Cours Albert Thomas, F-69372 Lyon 08, France
Lazzarato, Fulvio
[1
,2
]
Ronco, Guglielmo
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机构:
Ctr Epidemiol & Prevent Oncol, Dept Canc Screening, Turin, ItalyInt Agcy Res Canc, 150 Cours Albert Thomas, F-69372 Lyon 08, France
Ronco, Guglielmo
[3
]
Franceschi, Silvia
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IRCCS, Aviano Natl Canc Inst, Canc Epidemiol Unit, Aviano, ItalyInt Agcy Res Canc, 150 Cours Albert Thomas, F-69372 Lyon 08, France
Franceschi, Silvia
[4
]
机构:
[1] Int Agcy Res Canc, 150 Cours Albert Thomas, F-69372 Lyon 08, France
International variations in the prevalence of HPV infection derive from differences in sexual behaviors, which are also a key factor of the basic reproductive number (R-0) of HPV infection in different populations. R-0 affects the strength of herd protection and hence the impact of a vaccination program. Similar vaccination programs may therefore generate different levels of impact depending upon the population's pre-vaccination HPV prevalence. We used IARC's transmission model to estimate (i) the overall effectiveness of vaccination versus no vaccination in women aged 15-34 years measured as percent prevalence reduction (%PR) of HPV16 and (ii) the corresponding herd protection in populations with gender-equal or traditional sexual behavior and with different levels of sexual activity, corresponding to pre-vaccination HPV16 prevalence from 1 to 8% as observed worldwide. Between populations with different levels of gender-equal sexual activity, the highest difference in %PR under girls-only vaccination is observed at 40% coverage (91%PR vs. 48%PR for 1% and 8% pre-vaccination prevalence, respectively). HPV16 elimination is obtained with 55 and 97% coverage, respectively. To achieve desirable levels of HPV16 prevalence after vaccination, different levels of coverage are required in populations with different levels of pre-vaccination HPV16 prevalence, for example, in populations with gender-equal sexual behavior a decrease to 1/1000 HPV16 from pre-vaccination prevalence of 1 and 8% would require coverages of 37 and 96%, respectively. In traditional populations, corresponding coverages would need to be 28 and 93%, respectively. In conclusion, pre-vaccination HPV prevalence strongly influences herd immunity and helps predict the overall effectiveness of HPV vaccination. What's new? Differences in sexual activity from one population to another account for up to a ten-fold difference in HPV prevalence, which in turn affects cervical-cancer risk. How do these factors impact the effectiveness of HPV-vaccination programs? In this epidemiological study, the authors found that, in countries where sexual behavior is based on traditional norms and HPV prevalence remains low, an early introduction of HPV vaccination will anticipate any increase of HPV prevalence among young women due to the liberalization of social attitudes.
机构:
Canc Council NSW, Canc Res Div, Sydney, NSW, Australia
Univ New South Wales, Lowy Canc Res Ctr, Prince Wales Clin Sch, Sydney, NSW, AustraliaUniv Laval, CHU Quebec, Ctr Rech, Quebec City, PQ, Canada
Canfell, Karen
;
Chesson, Harrell W.
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CDCP, Div STD Prevent, Atlanta, GA USAUniv Laval, CHU Quebec, Ctr Rech, Quebec City, PQ, Canada
Chesson, Harrell W.
;
Burger, Emily A.
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机构:
Harvard T H Chan Sch Publ Hlth, Ctr Hlth Decis Sci, Boston, MA USA
Univ Oslo, Dept Hlth Management & Hlth Econ, Oslo, NorwayUniv Laval, CHU Quebec, Ctr Rech, Quebec City, PQ, Canada
机构:
Univ Oslo, Oslo Ctr Biostat & Epidemiol, Div Infect Dis Control, Norwegian Inst Publ Hlth, Oslo, Norway
Univ Oslo, Inst Basic Med Sci, Dept Biostat, Oslo Ctr Stat & Epidemiol, Oslo, NorwayUniv Laval, CHU Quebec, Ctr Rech, Quebec City, PQ, Canada
De Blasio, Birgitte Freiesleben
;
De Vlas, Sake J.
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机构:
Univ Med Ctr Rotterdam, Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, NetherlandsUniv Laval, CHU Quebec, Ctr Rech, Quebec City, PQ, Canada
De Vlas, Sake J.
;
Guzzetta, Giorgio
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机构:
Fdn Bruno Kessler, Trento, ItalyUniv Laval, CHU Quebec, Ctr Rech, Quebec City, PQ, Canada
Guzzetta, Giorgio
;
Hontelez, Jan A. C.
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
Harvard T H Chan Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Global Hlth & Populat, Boston, MA USA
Univ Med Ctr Rotterdam, Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, NetherlandsUniv Laval, CHU Quebec, Ctr Rech, Quebec City, PQ, Canada
Hontelez, Jan A. C.
;
Horn, Johannes
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
Helmholtz Ctr Infect Res, Epidemiol & Stat Methods Res Grp, Braunschweig, GermanyUniv Laval, CHU Quebec, Ctr Rech, Quebec City, PQ, Canada
机构:
Canc Council NSW, Canc Res Div, Sydney, NSW, Australia
Univ New South Wales, Lowy Canc Res Ctr, Prince Wales Clin Sch, Sydney, NSW, AustraliaUniv Laval, CHU Quebec, Ctr Rech, Quebec City, PQ, Canada
Canfell, Karen
;
Chesson, Harrell W.
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
CDCP, Div STD Prevent, Atlanta, GA USAUniv Laval, CHU Quebec, Ctr Rech, Quebec City, PQ, Canada
Chesson, Harrell W.
;
Burger, Emily A.
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
Harvard T H Chan Sch Publ Hlth, Ctr Hlth Decis Sci, Boston, MA USA
Univ Oslo, Dept Hlth Management & Hlth Econ, Oslo, NorwayUniv Laval, CHU Quebec, Ctr Rech, Quebec City, PQ, Canada
机构:
Univ Oslo, Oslo Ctr Biostat & Epidemiol, Div Infect Dis Control, Norwegian Inst Publ Hlth, Oslo, Norway
Univ Oslo, Inst Basic Med Sci, Dept Biostat, Oslo Ctr Stat & Epidemiol, Oslo, NorwayUniv Laval, CHU Quebec, Ctr Rech, Quebec City, PQ, Canada
De Blasio, Birgitte Freiesleben
;
De Vlas, Sake J.
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
Univ Med Ctr Rotterdam, Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, NetherlandsUniv Laval, CHU Quebec, Ctr Rech, Quebec City, PQ, Canada
De Vlas, Sake J.
;
Guzzetta, Giorgio
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
Fdn Bruno Kessler, Trento, ItalyUniv Laval, CHU Quebec, Ctr Rech, Quebec City, PQ, Canada
Guzzetta, Giorgio
;
Hontelez, Jan A. C.
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
Harvard T H Chan Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Global Hlth & Populat, Boston, MA USA
Univ Med Ctr Rotterdam, Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, NetherlandsUniv Laval, CHU Quebec, Ctr Rech, Quebec City, PQ, Canada
Hontelez, Jan A. C.
;
Horn, Johannes
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
Helmholtz Ctr Infect Res, Epidemiol & Stat Methods Res Grp, Braunschweig, GermanyUniv Laval, CHU Quebec, Ctr Rech, Quebec City, PQ, Canada