International Multicenter Validation of an Intermediate Risk Subclassification of Prostate Cancer Managed with Radical Treatment without Hormone Therapy

Purpose: The NCCN Guidelines (R) recently endorsed a subclassification of intermediate risk prostate cancer into favorable and unfavorable subgroups. However, this subclassification was developed in a treatment heterogeneous cohort. Thus, to our knowledge the natural history of androgen deprivation treatment naive favorable and unfavorable intermediate risk prostate cancer cases remains unknown. Materials and Methods: Groups at 3 academic centers pooled data on patients with intermediate risk prostate cancer treated with radical monotherapy (dose escalated external beam radiotherapy, brachytherapy or radical prostatectomy) without combined androgen deprivation treatment. We used the cumulative incidence with competing risk analysis to estimate biochemical recurrence, distant metastasis and prostate cancer specific mortality. Results: A total of 2,550 men at intermediate risk were included in study, of whom 1,063 and 1,487 were at favorable and unfavorable risk, respectively. Of the men 1,149 underwent radical prostatectomy, 1,143 underwent dose escalated external beam radiotherapy and 258 underwent brachytherapy. Median followup after the different treatments ranged from 60.4 to 107.4 months. The 10-year cumulative incidence of distant metastasis in the favorable vs unfavorable risk groups was 0.2% (95% CI 0.2-0.2) vs 11.6% (95% CI 7.7-15.5) for radical prostatectomy (p < 0.001), 2.8% (95% CI 0.8-4.8) vs 13.5% (95% CI 9.6-17.4) for dose escalated external beam radiotherapy (p < 0.001) and 3.5% (95% CI 0-7.4) vs 10.2% (95% CI 4.3-16.1) for brachytherapy (p = 0.063). The 10-year rate of prostate cancer specific mortality in the favorable vs unfavorable risk groups was 0% (95% CI 0-0) vs 3.7% (95% CI 1.7-5.7) for radical prostatectomy (p = 0.016), 0.5% (95% CI 0.5-0.5) vs 5.6% (95% CI 3.6-7.6) for dose escalated external beam radiotherapy (p = 0.015) and 0% (95% CI 0-0) vs 2.5% (95% CI 0.5-.5) for brachytherapy (p = 0.028). Conclusions: This multicenter international effort independently validates the prognostic value of the intermediate risk prostate cancer subclassification in androgen deprivation treatment naive cases across all radical treatment modalities. It is unlikely that treatment intensification would meaningfully improve oncologic outcomes in men at favorable intermediate risk.