Interdisciplinary model-informed drug development for extending duration of elagolix treatment in patients with uterine fibroids

Aim Elagolix, a gonadotropin-releasing hormone receptor antagonist, was recently approved for heavy menstrual bleeding associated with uterine fibroids (UF, Oriahnn) at a dose of 300 mg twice daily (BID) in combination with add-back therapy (oestradiol 1 mg/norethindrone acetate 0.5 mg [E2/NETA] once daily) for 24 months use. The limited duration of treatment is related to elagolix dose- and duration-dependent decrease in oestrogen that is mechanistically linked to changes in bone mineral density (BMD). The work herein supported the extended treatment duration of 24 months. Methods An integrated exposure-response and epidemiological modelling framework of elagolix effects on femoral neck BMD (FN-BMD), informed by real-world data and phase 3 clinical trials data, was developed to predict the time course and magnitude of changes in BMD and its relation to risk of bone fracture in women with UF. Results Model results indicated that women treated with elagolix 300 mg BID + E2/NETA in the long term (ie, >24 months) may experience less than 1% loss in FN-BMD per year, relative to placebo. The exposure-response model simulations and clinical risk factors were used to estimate 10-year risk of fractures using the clinically validated Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX). The impact of elagolix 300 mg BID + E2/NETA treatment on the 10-year risk of hip or major osteoporotic fractures estimated from the FRAX model was minimal compared to that of placebo. Conclusion The elagolix integrated exposure-BMD analysis and translation to fracture risk provided an interdisciplinary model-informed drug development framework for clinical benefit-risk evaluation and enabled approval of longer treatment duration to benefit the patient.