The global demand for motorized mobility

被引：120

作者：

Schafer, A

机构：

[1] MIT, Ctr Technol Policy & Ind Dev, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA

[2] MIT Joint Program Sci & Policy Global Change, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA

来源：

TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH PART A-POLICY AND PRACTICE | 1998年 / 32卷 / 06期

关键词：

global mobility; passenger travel; travel budgets; transportation CO2 emissions;

D O I：

10.1016/S0965-8564(98)00004-4

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

This paper provides a data set of global and regional passenger traffic volumes between 1960 and 1990 for the four major motorized modes of transport-cars, buses, railways, and aircraft-in eleven world regions. Based on these data, global long-term trends in motorized traffic volume and modal split are projected. The underlying constraints, originally employed in urban traffic planning and never before applied to global scenarios, assume that humans invest fixed budgets of money and time for travel on average. The paper also discusses implications of rising travel demand on world passenger transport energy use, on the global automobile motorization rate, and briefly deals with the long-term implications of unlimited mobility growth. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：455 / 477

页数：23