A modelling framework to forecast urban goods flows

After investigating the suitability of using assessment procedures which include goods demand models, this paper examines the activities and decision makers involved in urban goods movements, showing the need to use an integrated modelling approach. Models developed for estimating origin-destination goods flows are then reviewed. A modelling framework for the ex-ante assessment of planning effects is then presented, taking due consideration of the integration among purchasing and restocking, and the behaviours of the decision makers involved, such as end consumers (in-store and e-shopping) and retailers. Some examples of aggregate purchase generation, purchase trips and restocking models as well as case studies are then presented. Finally, some considerations are made and conclusions are drawn.