Comparison of multiplicative and additive hyperbolic and hyperboloid discounting models in delayed lotteries involving gains and losses

被引:5
作者
Bialaszek, Wojciech [1 ]
Marcowski, Przemyslaw [1 ]
Cox, David J. [2 ]
机构
[1] SWPS Univ Social Sci & Humanities, Warsaw, Poland
[2] Johns Hopkins Med, JHUSOM Dept Psychiat & Behav Sci, Odenton, MD USA
关键词
OPIOID-DEPENDENT OUTPATIENTS; HYPOTHETICAL MONEY; DECISION-MAKING; CIGARETTE-SMOKING; TIME-PREFERENCES; PROBABILITY; REWARDS; FUTURE; BEHAVIOR; HEALTH;
D O I
10.1371/journal.pone.0233337
中图分类号
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
Many day-to-day decisions may involve risky outcomes that occur at some delay after a decision has been made. We refer to such scenarios as delayed lotteries. Despite human choice often involves delayed lotteries, past research has primarily focused on decisions with delayed or risky outcomes. Comparatively, less research has explored how delay and probability interact to influence decisions. Within research on delayed lotteries, rigorous comparisons of models that describe choice from the discounting framework have not been conducted. We performed two experiments to determine how gain or loss outcomes are devalued when delayed and risky. Experiment 1 used delay and probability ranges similar to past research on delayed lotteries. Experiment 2 used individually calibrated delay and probability ranges. Ten discounting models were fit to the data using a genetic algorithm. Candidate models were derived from past research on discounting delayed or probabilistic outcomes. We found that participants' behavior was best described primarily by a three-parameter multiplicative model. Measures based on information criteria pointed to a solution in which only delay and probability were psychophysically scaled. Absolute measures based on residuals pointed to a solution in which amount, delay, and probability are simultaneously scaled. Our research suggests that separate scaling parameters for different discounting factors may not be necessary with delayed lotteries.
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页数:18
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