Velo-Predictor: an ensemble learning pipeline for RNA velocity prediction

Background RNA velocity is a novel and powerful concept which enables the inference of dynamical cell state changes from seemingly static single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) data. However, accurate estimation of RNA velocity is still a challenging problem, and the underlying kinetic mechanisms of transcriptional and splicing regulations are not fully clear. Moreover, scRNA-seq data tend to be sparse compared with possible cell states, and a given dataset of estimated RNA velocities needs imputation for some cell states not yet covered. Results We formulate RNA velocity prediction as a supervised learning problem of classification for the first time, where a cell state space is divided into equal-sized segments by directions as classes, and the estimated RNA velocity vectors are considered as ground truth. We propose Velo-Predictor, an ensemble learning pipeline for predicting RNA velocities from scRNA-seq data. We test different models on two real datasets, Velo-Predictor exhibits good performance, especially when XGBoost was used as the base predictor. Parameter analysis and visualization also show that the method is robust and able to make biologically meaningful predictions. Conclusion The accurate result shows that Velo-Predictor can effectively simplify the procedure by learning a predictive model from gene expression data, which could help to construct a continous landscape and give biologists an intuitive picture about the trend of cellular dynamics.