Structural identifiability;
Infectious disease transmission;
Compartmental models;
Data types;
Initial conditions;
GLOBAL IDENTIFIABILITY;
PARAMETER;
D O I:
10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100643
中图分类号:
R51 [传染病];
学科分类号:
100401 ;
摘要:
If model identifiability is not confirmed, inferences from infectious disease transmission models may not be reliable, so they might result in misleading recommendations. Structural identifiability analysis characterises whether it is possible to obtain unique solutions for all unknown model parameters, given the model structure. In this work, we studied the structural identifiability of some typical deterministic compartmental models for infectious disease transmission, focusing on the influence of the data type considered as model output on the identifiability of unknown model parameters, including initial conditions. We defined 26 model versions, each having a unique combination of underlying compartmental structure and data type(s) considered as model output(s). Four compartmental model structures and three common data types in disease surveillance (incidence, prevalence and detected vector counts) were studied. The structural identifiability of some parameters varied depending on the type of model output. In general, models with multiple data types as outputs had more structurally identifiable parameters, than did models with a single data type as output. This study highlights the importance of a careful consideration of data types as an integral part of the inference process with compartmental infectious disease transmission models.
机构:
Univ Guelph, Dept Math & Stat, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, CanadaUniv Guelph, Dept Math & Stat, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada
Deeth, Lorna E.
Deardon, Rob
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
Univ Calgary, Fac Vet Med, Calgary, AB T2N 1N4, Canada
Univ Calgary, Dept Math & Stat, Calgary, AB T2N 1N4, CanadaUniv Guelph, Dept Math & Stat, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada
机构:
Minist Hlth, San Jose, Costa RicaUniv Oxford, Dept Zool, Oxford OX1 3PS, England
Morice, A.
Grenfell, B. T.
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
Princeton Univ, Dept Ecol & Evolutionary Biol, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA
NIH, Fogarty Int Ctr, Bethesda, MD 20892 USAUniv Oxford, Dept Zool, Oxford OX1 3PS, England
Grenfell, B. T.
Bjornstad, O. N.
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
NIH, Fogarty Int Ctr, Bethesda, MD 20892 USA
Penn State Univ, Ctr Infect Dis Dynam, State Coll, PA USAUniv Oxford, Dept Zool, Oxford OX1 3PS, England