Structural identifiability of compartmental models for infectious disease transmission is influenced by data type

被引:7
作者
Dankwa, Emmanuelle A. [1 ]
Brouwer, Andrew F. [2 ]
Donnelly, Christl A. [1 ,3 ]
机构
[1] Univ Oxford, Dept Stat, 24-29 St Giles, Oxford, England
[2] Univ Michigan, Dept Epidemiol, 1415 Washington Hts, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 USA
[3] Imperial Coll London, Fac Med, Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Infect Dis Epidemiol, London, England
基金
美国国家科学基金会; 英国医学研究理事会; 美国国家卫生研究院;
关键词
Structural identifiability; Infectious disease transmission; Compartmental models; Data types; Initial conditions; GLOBAL IDENTIFIABILITY; PARAMETER;
D O I
10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100643
中图分类号
R51 [传染病];
学科分类号
100401 ;
摘要
If model identifiability is not confirmed, inferences from infectious disease transmission models may not be reliable, so they might result in misleading recommendations. Structural identifiability analysis characterises whether it is possible to obtain unique solutions for all unknown model parameters, given the model structure. In this work, we studied the structural identifiability of some typical deterministic compartmental models for infectious disease transmission, focusing on the influence of the data type considered as model output on the identifiability of unknown model parameters, including initial conditions. We defined 26 model versions, each having a unique combination of underlying compartmental structure and data type(s) considered as model output(s). Four compartmental model structures and three common data types in disease surveillance (incidence, prevalence and detected vector counts) were studied. The structural identifiability of some parameters varied depending on the type of model output. In general, models with multiple data types as outputs had more structurally identifiable parameters, than did models with a single data type as output. This study highlights the importance of a careful consideration of data types as an integral part of the inference process with compartmental infectious disease transmission models.
引用
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页数:9
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