Global prediction of recessions

被引:4
作者
Dovern, Jonas [1 ]
Huber, Florian [2 ]
机构
[1] Heidelberg Univ, Alfred Weber Inst Econ, D-69115 Heidelberg, Germany
[2] Oesterreich Natl Bank OeNB, Vienna, Austria
关键词
GVAR; Recession forecast; QPS; Probability forecast; TURNING-POINTS;
D O I
10.1016/j.econlet.2015.05.022
中图分类号
F [经济];
学科分类号
02 ;
摘要
We present evidence that global vectorautoregressive (GVAR) models produce more accurate recession forecasts than country-specific time-series models in a Bayesian framework. This result holds for most countries and forecast horizons as well as for several country groups. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码:81 / 84
页数:4
相关论文
共 50 条
  • [31] The impact of real exchange rates adjustments on global imbalances: A multilateral approach
    Allegret, Jean-Pierre
    Sallenave, Audrey
    [J]. ECONOMIC MODELLING, 2014, 37 : 149 - 163
  • [32] QoS Prediction and Adversarial Attack Protection for Distributed Services Under DLaaS
    Liang, Wei
    Li, Yuhui
    Xu, Jianlong
    Qin, Zheng
    Zhang, Dafang
    Li, Kuan-Ching
    [J]. IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON COMPUTERS, 2024, 73 (03) : 669 - 682
  • [33] A contribution to the chronology of turning points in global economic activity (1980-2012)
    Martinez-Garcia, Enrique
    Grossman, Valerie
    Mack, Adrienne
    [J]. JOURNAL OF MACROECONOMICS, 2015, 46 : 170 - 185
  • [34] An environmental Kuznets curve for global forests: An application of the mi-lasso estimator
    Cherodian, Rowan
    Fraser, Iain
    [J]. FOREST POLICY AND ECONOMICS, 2024, 168
  • [35] Research on New Energy Probability Prediction Technology Based on Ensemble Weather Forecast
    Wu, Han
    Yuan, Yang
    Yu, Wei
    Wu, Chao
    Huang, Hao
    Dong, Annan
    [J]. 2022 12TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON POWER AND ENERGY SYSTEMS, ICPES, 2022, : 886 - 889
  • [36] Crime and the Life Course in a Changing World: Insights from Chicago and Implications for Global Criminology
    Robert J. Sampson
    [J]. Asian Journal of Criminology, 2015, 10 : 277 - 286
  • [37] The effect of oil uncertainty shock on real GDP of 33 countries: a global VAR approach
    Salisu, Afees A.
    Gupta, Rangan
    Olaniran, Abeeb
    [J]. APPLIED ECONOMICS LETTERS, 2023, 30 (03) : 269 - 274
  • [39] Spatial Price Transmission and Price Dynamics of Global Butter Export Market under Economic Shocks
    Xue, Huidan
    Li, Chenguang
    Wang, Liming
    Su, Wen-Hao
    [J]. SUSTAINABILITY, 2021, 13 (16)
  • [40] Islamic stock markets and COVID-19-induced shocks: simulations with global VAR approach
    Adediran, Idris A.
    Salawudeen, Abdulfatai
    Ashraf Sabzwari, Syed Nasir
    [J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ISLAMIC AND MIDDLE EASTERN FINANCE AND MANAGEMENT, 2022, 15 (02) : 287 - 309