Global prediction of recessions

被引：4
作者：
Dovern, Jonas [1 ]
Huber, Florian [2 ]
机构：
[1] Heidelberg Univ, Alfred Weber Inst Econ, D-69115 Heidelberg, Germany
[2] Oesterreich Natl Bank OeNB, Vienna, Austria
来源：
ECONOMICS LETTERS | 2015年 / 133卷
关键词：
GVAR; Recession forecast; QPS; Probability forecast; TURNING-POINTS;
D O I：
10.1016/j.econlet.2015.05.022
中图分类号：
F [经济];
学科分类号：
02 ;
摘要：
We present evidence that global vectorautoregressive (GVAR) models produce more accurate recession forecasts than country-specific time-series models in a Bayesian framework. This result holds for most countries and forecast horizons as well as for several country groups. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码：81 / 84
页数：4
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