POSSUM and P-POSSUM Scoring in Hip Fracture Mortalities

Introduction: Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and Morbidity (POSSUM) and Portsmouth POSSUM (P-POSSUM) are general surgical tools used to efficiently assess mortality and morbidity risk. Data suggest that these tools can be used in hip fracture patients to predict morbidity and mortality; however, it is unclear what score indicates a significant risk on a case-by-case basis. We examined the POSSUM and P-POSSUM scores in a group of hip fracture mortalities in order to assess their accuracy in identification of similar high-risk patients. Materials and Methods: Retrospective analysis of all consecutive mortalities in hip fracture patients at a single tertiary care center over 2 years was performed. Patient medical records were examined for baseline demographics, fracture characteristics, surgical interventions, and cause of death. Twelve physiological and 6 operative variables were used to retrospectively calculate POSSUM and P-POSSUM scores at the time of injury. Results: Forty-seven hip fracture mortalities were reviewed. Median patient age was 88 years (range: 56-99). Overall, 68.1% (32) underwent surgical intervention. Mean predicted POSSUM morbidity and mortality rates were 73.9% (28%-99%) and 31.1% (5%-83%), respectively. The mean predicted P-POSSUM mortality rate was 26.4% (1%-91%) and 53.2% (25) had a P-POSSUM predicted mortality of >20%. Subgroup analysis demonstrated poor agreement between predicted mortality and observed mortality rate for POSSUM in operative (chi(2)= 127.5,P< .00001) and nonoperative cohorts (chi(2)= 14.6,P< .00001), in addition to P-POSSUM operative (chi(2)= 101.9,P< .00001) and nonoperative (chi(2)= 11.9,P< .00001) scoring. Discussion/Conclusion: Hip fracture patients are at significant risk of both morbidity and mortality. A reliable, replicable, and accurate tool to represent the expected risk of such complications could help facilitate clinical decision-making to determine the optimal level of care. Screening tools such as POSSUM and P-POSSUM have limitations in accurately identifying high-risk hip fracture patients.