The analysis of maritime piracy occurred in Southeast Asia by using Bayesian network

Maritime piracy poses various risks that can cause disruptions, economic problems, injuries of crew members, and damages to ships. This paper proposes an analytical model based on Bayesian network to estimate the possibility of the ship being attacked or hijacked in Southeast Asia. The BN can capture the causal relationships between piracy and influencing factors, which facilitates the probability prediction process. The characteristic of ships, environment and anti-piracy measures are incorporated in the model. Available data from IMO together with expert knowledge is applied to validate the model. The results can provide stakeholders with insights to make decisions under uncertainties.