A simple scoring system to predict early recurrence of Bismuth-Corlette type IV perihilar cholangiocarcinoma

Background: Early recurrence has been reported to be predictive of a poor prognosis for patients with perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (pCCA) after resection. The objective of our study was to construct a useful scoring system to predict early recurrence for Bismuth-Corlette type IV pCCA patients in clinic and to investigate the value of early recurrence in directing post-operative surveillance and adjuvant therapy. Methods: In total, 244 patients who underwent radical resection for type IV pCCA were included. Data on clinicopathological characteristics, perioperative details and survival outcomes were analyzed. Survival curves were generated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Univariate and multivariate logistic-regression models were used to identify factors associated with early recurrence. Results: Twenty-one months was defined as the cutoff point to distinguish between early and late recurrence. Univariate and multivariate analysis revealed that CA19-9 level >200 U/mL, R1 resection margin, higher N category and positive lymphovascular invasion were independent predictors of early recurrence. The scoring system was constructed accordingly. The early-recurrence rates of patients with scores of 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 were 23.9%, 38.7%, 60.0%, 78.6%, 83.4%, and 100%, respectively. Adjuvant therapy was significantly associated with higher overall survival rate for patients with early recurrence, but not for those with late recurrence. Patients in the early-recurrence group with scores >= 2 had better prognoses after adjuvant therapy. Conclusions: A simple scoring system using CA19-9 level, N category, resection margin and lymphovascular invasion status could predict early recurrence, and thus might direct post-operative surveillance and adjuvant therapy for patients with type IV pCCA.