Nomograms to predict the long-time prognosis in patients with alpha-fetoprotein negative hepatocellular carcinoma following radical resection

Background To develop and validate nomograms that can be used to predict outcomes in individuals suffering alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) negative hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after radical resection. Methods A total of 509 AFP-negative HCC patients who received hepatectomy between January 2009 and March 2013 in our center were randomized into training and validation cohorts. Nomograms for both overall and recurrence-free survival (OS and RFS, respectively) were established based on the predictors in the training cohort. Nomograms performance and discriminative power were assessed with concordance index (C-index) values and decision curve analyses (DCA). The results were validated in the validation cohort. Results Alkaline phosphatase, liver cirrhosis, tumor size, satellite lesions, microvascular invasion, and Edmondson-Steiner grade were significantly linked to OS and RFS. Sex and tumor number were additional predictors for RFS. The OS nomogram had a C-index value of 0.742, which was better than that for the AJCC eighth edition (0.632), BCLC system (0.553), and JIS score (0.557) (all P < .001). The RFS nomogram C-index was 0.669, which was also superior to that of the AJCC eighth (0.608), BCLC stage (0.554), JIS score (0.551), and model of Gan et al (0.636) (P < .05 for all). Calibration curves indicated a good agreement between observed actual outcomes and predicted values. Kaplan-Meier curves and DCA indicated that nomograms were powerful in discrimination and clinical usefulness. These results were supported by the validation cohort. Conclusions These nomograms presented more accurate prognostic prediction in patients with AFP-negative HCC after hepatectomy.