Development and Validation of a Prognostic Model for Cognitive Impairment in Parkinson's Disease With REM Sleep Behavior Disorder

The presentation and progression of Parkinson's disease (PD) are not uniform, but the presence of rapid eye movement sleep behavior disorder (RBD) in PD patients may indicate a worse prognosis than isolated PD. Increasing evidence suggests that patients with comorbid PD and RBD (PD-RBD) are more likely to develop cognitive impairment (CI) than those with isolated PD; however, the predictors of CI in PD-RBD patients are not well understood. This study aimed to develop a prognostic model for predicting mild cognitive impairment (MCI) in PD-RBD patients. The data of PD-RBD patients were extracted from the Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative study (PPMI), and the sample was randomly divided into a training set (n = 96) and a validation set (n = 24). PD-MCI as defined by the level II Movement Disorder Society (MDS) diagnostic criteria was the outcome of interest. The demographic features, clinical assessments, dopamine transporter (DAT) imaging data, cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) analyses and genetic data of PD patients were considered candidate predictors. We found that performance on the University of Pennsylvania Smell Identification Test (UPSIT), the mean signal and asymmetry index of the putamen on DAT imaging, p-tau/alpha-syn and p-tau in CSF, and rs55785911 genotype were predictors of PD-MCI in PD-RBD patients. A C-index of 0.81 was obtained with this model, and a C-index of 0.73 was obtained in the validation set. Favorable results of calibrations and decision curve analysis demonstrated the efficacy and feasibility of this model. In conclusion, we developed a prognostic model for predicting MCI in PD-RBD patients; the model displayed good discrimination and calibration and may be a convenient tool for clinical application. Larger samples and external validation sets are needed to validate this model.