Prognostic value of serum alpha-1-antitrypsin in hepatocellular carcinoma

To evaluate serum alpha-1-antitrypsin (A1AT) as a prognostic factor in hepatocellular carcinoma, we studied 75 consecutive patients (60 male, 15 female, mean age +/- SD 63.0 +/- 9.3 years) in whom hepatocellular carcinoma developed with pre-existing cirrhosis. Median survival time was 245 days (range 4-1568+). 30 patients had serum A1AT concentration of less than or equal to 2.20 gn (Group A) while 45 (Group B) had alpha-1-antitrypsin > 2.20 g/l. Median survival was 518 days in Group A and 81 days in Group B (Mantel-Cox 20.95, P < 0.0001; hazard ratio 0.26, 95% confidence limits 0.15-0.46). By stepwise survival analysis, alpha-1-antitrypsin together with bilirubin, tumour size and blood urea nitrogen were chosen among 17 variables as the only independent predictors of survival. We conclude that measurement of serum A1AT concentration might be useful as an inexpensive, widely available prognostic marker of hepatocellular carcinoma.