Factors associated with the refusal of surgery and the associated impact on survival in patients with rectal cancer using the National Cancer Database

Background: Surgical resection is an integral component of the curative-intent treatment for most patients with non-metastatic rectal cancer. However, some patients refuse surgery for a number of reasons. Utilizing the National Cancer Database (NCDB), we investigated the sociodemographic and clinical factors associated with patients who were coded as having been offered but refused surgery, and the factors affecting overall survival (OS) in these patients. Methods: Adult patients with adenocarcinoma of the rectum (excluding T1N0M0 and M1 disease) diagnosed from 2004 to 2015 were analyzed in this retrospective cohort study. Logistic regression was performed to identify factors associated with refusal of surgery. OS of patients refusing surgery was compared using Kaplan-Meier estimate, log-rank test, propensity score matching, and proportional hazards regression. Results: A total of 55,704 patients were identified: 54,266 received definitive surgery (97.4%) and 1,438 refused (2.6%). Of patients refusing surgery, 135 (9.4%) were stage I, 709 (49.3%) were stage II, and 594 (41.3%) were stage III. Patients were more likely to refuse surgery as the study period progressed (P<0.01). Factors associated with refusal of surgery on multivariate analysis include: age >= 70 years, Black race, non-private insurance, and tumor size greater than 2 cm (all values P<0.01). The 5-year OS was 61.6% for the surgery cohort and 35.7% for the refusal cohort. In the propensity matched groups, median survival was 84.2 months in patients who received definitive surgery compared to 43.7 months in patients who refused surgery. As an index for comparison, patients who refused surgery but received both radiotherapy and chemotherapy had a median survival of 48.5 months. Among patients that refused surgery, those that received radiotherapy alone, chemotherapy alone, or radiotherapy and chemotherapy (compared to no treatment) experienced a survival benefit (all values P<0.01). Conclusions: In patients with non-metastatic adenocarcinoma of the rectum reported in the NCDB, age, race, and insurance status were associated with refusal of surgery. Refusal of surgery was more common in the later years of the study. Survival is poor in patients who refused surgical resection.