Atmospheric fronts in current and future climates

Atmospheric fronts are important for the day-to-day variability of weather in the midlatitudes. It is therefore vital to know how their distribution and frequency will change in a projected warmer climate. Here we apply an objective front identification method, based on a thermal front parameter, to 6-hourly data from models participating in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5. The historical simulations are evaluated against ERA-Interim and found to produce a similar frequency of fronts and with similar front strength. The models show some biases in the location of the front frequency maxima. Future changes are estimated using the high emissions scenario simulations (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5). Projections show an overall decrease in front frequency in the Northern Hemisphere, with a poleward shift of the maxima of front frequency and a strong decrease at high latitudes where the temperature gradient is decreased. The Southern Hemisphere shows a poleward shift of the frequency maximum, consistent with previous storm track studies.