Effects of volcanism on tropical variability

被引：147

作者：

Maher, Nicola ^{[1
,2
]}

McGregor, Shayne ^{[1
,2
]}

England, Matthew H. ^{[1
,2
]}

Sen Gupta, Alexander ^{[1
,2
]}

机构：

[1] Univ New S Wales, Climate Change Res Ctr, Sydney, NSW, Australia

[2] Univ New S Wales, ARC Ctr Excellence Climate Syst Sci, Sydney, NSW, Australia

来源：

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS | 2015年 / 42卷 / 14期

基金：

澳大利亚研究理事会;

关键词：

volcanic climate forcing; ENSO; IOD; Pacific-Indian variability; surface air temperature; CMIP5; INDIAN-OCEAN DIPOLE; NINO SOUTHERN-OSCILLATION; SEA-LEVEL; TEMPERATURE; ERUPTIONS; CLIMATE; PACIFIC; SOLAR; ENSO; SIMULATIONS;

D O I：

10.1002/2015GL064751

中图分类号：

P [天文学、地球科学];

学科分类号：

07 ;

摘要：

The effects of large tropical volcanic eruptions on Indo-Pacific tropical variability are investigated using 122 historical ensemble members from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5. Radiative forcing due to volcanic aerosols in the stratosphere is found to increase the likelihood of a model climatic response that projects onto both the El Nino-Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Large eruptions are associated with co-occurring El Nino and positive IOD events in the ensemble means that peak 6-12months after the volcanic forcing peaks, marking a significant increase in the likelihood of each event occurring in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) spring/summer posteruption. There is also an ensemble mean La Nina-like response in the third SH summer posteruption, which coincides with a significant increase in the likelihood of a La Nina occurring. Taken together with the initial cooling, this La Nina-like response may increase the persistence of the cool global average surface temperature anomaly after an eruption.

引用

页码：6024 / 6033

页数：10

共 54 条

[1] Proxy evidence for an El Nino-like response to volcanic forcing [J].