Sustainable Use of Groundwater May Dramatically Reduce Irrigated Production of Maize, Soybean, and Wheat

被引:11
作者
Lopez, Jose R. [1 ]
Winter, Jonathan M. [1 ]
Elliott, Joshua [2 ]
Ruane, Alex C. [3 ]
Porter, Cheryl [4 ]
Hoogenboom, Gerrit [4 ,5 ]
Anderson, Martha [6 ]
Hain, Christopher [7 ]
机构
[1] Dartmouth Coll, Dept Geog, Hanover, NH 03755 USA
[2] Univ Chicago, Computat Inst, Chicago, IL USA
[3] NASA Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY USA
[4] Univ Florida, Agr & Biol Engn Dept, Gainesville, FL USA
[5] Univ Florida, Food Syst Inst, Gainesville, FL USA
[6] USDA ARS, Hydrol & Remote Sensing Lab, Beltsville, MD USA
[7] NASA Marshall Space Flight Ctr, Huntsville, AL USA
基金
美国国家科学基金会; 美国农业部;
关键词
sustainability; irrigation; water use; crop; irrigated agriculture; CLIMATE-CHANGE; DEFICIT IRRIGATION; HIGH-PLAINS; SAFE YIELD; MODEL; SYSTEM; IMPACT; UNCERTAINTY; RESOURCES; AQUIFERS;
D O I
10.1029/2021EF002018
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
Groundwater extraction in the United States (US) is unsustainable, making it essential to understand the impacts of limited water use on irrigated agriculture. To improve this understanding, we integrated a gridded crop model with satellite observations, recharge estimates, and water survey data to assess the effects of sustainable groundwater withdrawals on US irrigated agricultural production. The gridded crop model agrees with satellite-based estimates of evapotranspiration (R-2 = 0.68), as well as survey data from the United States Department of Agriculture (R-2 = 0.82-0.94 for county-level production and 0.37-0.54 for county-level yield). Using the optimistic assumption that groundwater extraction equals effective aquifer recharge rate, we find that sustainable groundwater use decreases US irrigated production of maize, soybean, and winter wheat by 20%, 6%, and 25%, respectively. Using a more conservative assumption of groundwater availability, US irrigated production of maize, soybean, and winter wheat decreases by 45%, 37%, and 36%, respectively. The wide range of simulated losses is driven by considerable uncertainty in surface water and groundwater interactions, as well as accounting for the many aspects of sustainability. Our results demonstrate the vulnerability of US irrigated agriculture to unsustainable groundwater pumping, highlighting the difficulty of expanding or even maintaining irrigated food production in the face of climate change, population growth, and shifting dietary demands. These findings are based on reducing pumping by fallowing irrigated farmland; however, alternate pumping reduction strategies or technological advances in crop genetics and irrigation could produce different results.
引用
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页数:13
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