CPA Calculation Method based on AIS Position Prediction

The information on the Closest Point of Approach (CPA) of another vessel to own ship is required in a potential collision situation as it helps determines the risk to each vessel. CPA is usually calculated based on the speed and direction of the approaching ship neglecting the Change Of Speed (COS) and the Rate Of Turn (ROT). This will make the CPA less useful. To improve the CPA calculation, Automatic Identification System (AIS) information containing the Speed Over Ground (SOG), Course Over Ground (COG), COS and ROT is used. Firstly, a model using these four factors is built to predict ship positions better. Secondly, a three-step CPA searching method is developed. The developed CPA calculation method can assist in informing the navigation decisions and reducing unnecessary manoeuvres. Through the analysis of a real collision scenario, this paper shows that the proposed method can help identify and warn of anomalous ship behaviours in a realistic time frame.