Forming a 5G strategy for developing countries: A note for policy makers

This paper aims to provide policy makers in low income and middle income countries with a pragmatic review of the critical issues in formulating effective strategies and planning to embrace the next generation of mobile cellular technology. In a context of industry lobbying of governments to promote 5G, the paper attempts to bring clarity to just what are the critical issues, specifically for an industrial policy to deal with this novel but complex technology. Planning for 5G is a series of complicated choices as there are issues at the levels of creating ecosystems to support it, unproven business models, with claims for applications which may not be financially viable, yet, plus confusion over choices of radio spectrum, and selection of equipment suppliers, even potential issues over public health, as well as the real level of industrial and consumer demand beyond the hype. The emphasis here is on the importance of making balanced strategic choices, by identifying the basic issues, in a `realpolitik' fashion - including why embrace 5G at all. The paper develops its insights from lessons learnt in the introduction of the previous mobile generation, LTE, also from policy studies on small cells and on designing auctions for 5G networks, as well as various 5G-focused publications from governments, regulatory authorities, mobile industry associations and global suppliers over the past six years (2015-2020). It examines whether to regulate 5G deployment with a heavy or light-touch regime, also whether to focus on more than the traditional indicators, such as penetration and coverage, or on "transformational outcomes" (as the promotional literature terms them) for the private and public sectors.