Exploratory Analysis to Predict Optimal Tumor Burden for Starting Lenvatinib in Patients With Radioiodine-Refractory Differentiated Thyroid Cancer

Background We previously reported that a high tumor burden is a prognostic factor based on an analysis of 26 patients with radioactive iodine-refractory differentiated thyroid cancer (RR-DTC) who were treated with lenvatinib. However, the optimal tumor burden for starting lenvatinib still remains to be defined. The aim of this retrospective study was to further explore in the same patient cohort the optimal timing for the start of lenvatinib by focusing on the pre- and post-treatment tumor burden. Methods The 26 patients were treated with lenvatinib from 2012 to 2017. We explored the optimal timing for the start of lenvatinib by comparing the characteristics of long-term responders who were defined as patients with progression-free survival >= 30 months and non-long-term responders. Results Long-term responders had a smaller post-treatment tumor burden at maximum shrinkage than non-long-term responders. Further, post-treatment tumor burden had a strong linear correlation with baseline tumor burden. We created an estimation formula for baseline tumor burden related to prognosis, using these regression lines. Patients with a sum of diameters of target lesions < 60 mm or maximum tumor diameter < 34 mm at baseline were estimated to have significantly better survival outcomes. Conclusions We found a strong linear correlation between pre- and post-treatment tumor burden. Our results suggested a cut-off value for baseline tumor burden for long-term prognosis among patients treated with lenvatinib.