Prognostic value of circulating tumour DNA in metastatic pancreatic cancer patients: post-hoc analyses of two clinical trials

Objective The prognostication of metastatic pancreatic adenocarcinoma (mPDAC) patients remains uncertain, mainly based on carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9), with limited utility. Circulating tumour DNA (ctDNA) has been suggested as a prognostic factor, but its added value has been poorly explored. The objective was to determine whether ctDNA is an independent factor for the prognostication of mPDAC. Design Translational study based on two prospective collections of plasma samples of mPDAC patients naive for chemotherapy. One used as a test series and the other as validation series coming from two randomised trials (Prodige 35 and Prodige 37). CtDNA was assessed by digital droplet PCR targeting two methylated markers (HOXD8 and POU4F1) according to a newly developed and validated method. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed according to ctDNA status. Results Of 372 plasma samples available, 354 patients were analyzed for survival. In the validation series, 145 of 255 patients were found ctDNA positive (56.8%), Median PFS and OS were 5.3 and 8.2 months in ctDNA-positive and 6.2 and 12.6 months in ctDNA-negative patients, respectively. ctDNA positivity was more often associated with young age, high CA19-9 level and neutrophils lymphocytes ratio. In multivariate analysis including these previous markers, ctDNA was confirmed as an independent prognostic marker for PFS (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 1.5, CI 95% [1.03-2.18], p = 0.034) and OS (HR 1.62, CI 95% [1.05-2.5], p = 0.029). Conclusions In this first ctDNA assessment in a large series of mPDAC derived from clinical trials, ctDNA was detectable in 56.8% of patients and confirmed as an independent prognostic marker.