Faster Lumbar Spine Bone Loss in Midlife Predicts Subsequent Fracture Independent of Starting Bone Mineral Density

Context: Bone mineral density (BMD) decreases rapidly during menopause transition (MT), and continues to decline in postmenopause. Objective: This work aims to examine whether faster BMD loss during the combined MT and early postmenopause is associated with incident fracture, independent of starting BMD, before the MT. Methods: The Study of Women's Health Across the Nation, a longitudinal cohort study, included 451 women, initially premenopausal or early perimenopausal, and those transitioned to postmenopause. Main outcome measures included time to first fracture after early postmenopause. Results: In Cox proportional hazards regression, adjusted for age, body mass index, race/ethnicity, study site, use of vitamin D and calcium supplements, and use of bone-detrimental or -beneficial medications, each SD decrement in lumbar spine (LS) BMD before MT was associated with a 78% increment in fracture hazard (P = .007). Each 1% per year faster decline in LS BMD was related to a 56% greater fracture hazard (P = .04). Rate of LS BMD decline predicted future fracture, independent of starting BMD. Women with a starting LS BMD below the sample median, and an LS BMD decline rate faster than the sample median had a 2.7-fold greater fracture hazard (P = .03). At the femoral neck, neither starting BMD nor rate of BMD decline was associated with fracture. Conclusion: At the LS, starting BMD before the MT and rate of decline during the combined MT and early postmenopause are independent risk factors for fracture. Women with a below-median starting LS BMD and a faster-than-median LS BMD decline have the greatest fracture risk.