Three-year risk of high-grade CIN for women aged 30 years or older who undergo baseline Pap cytology and HPV co-screening

BACKGROUND Papanicolaou (Pap) cytology and high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA cotesting for women aged 30 years are recommended for the prevention of cervical cancer. The objective of the current study was to evaluate the efficacy of this cotesting for predicting the risk of high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 3 (CIN3) during a 3-year follow-up period. METHODS A retrospective database search identified women aged 30 years who had baseline HPV and Pap cytology cotesting results in 2007 or 2008 and for whom 3-year follow-up results were available. The cumulative 3-year risks of developing CIN-3 were calculated. RESULTS The 3-year follow-up data after baseline Pap/HPV cotesting were available for 1986 women (mean age, 53 years). Of the 1668 women who had a baseline Pap-negative (Pap-)/HPV- cotesting result, 1561 (93.6%) had a follow-up Pap cytology result that was negative for intraepithelial lesions or malignancy. Of the 1530 women who had follow-up Pap/HPV cotesting, 1504 (98.3%) had a Pap-/HPV- result. The 3-year cumulative risk of developing CIN-3 was found to be highest for women with a baseline Pap-positive (Pap+)/HPV+ cotesting result (12.5%); the risk of CIN-3 was lower in those with a Pap-/HPV+ result (1.5%; P = .0032) or a Pap-/HPV- result (0.06%; P<.0001). The 3-year cumulative risk of CIN-3 was found to be significantly greater for women with an HPV+ result (4.8%) compared with those with an HPV- result (0.06%; P<.0001). CONCLUSIONS Pap cytology and HPV cotesting are valuable for stratifying CIN-3 risk. Pap cytology and HPV co-screening at a 3-year screening interval appears to carry a low risk of CIN-3 for women who have a baseline Pap-/HPV- cotesting result. Cancer Cytopathol 2017;125:644-51. (c) 2017 American Cancer Society.